Ultrarunner-photographer-programmer Aaron Schwartzbard, recently idle for a few hours, wrote and shared a neat "UltraSignup Visualizer" to take results from UltraSignup.com and graph them.

In my case, after a decade of 40+ ultras there's a clear 50%-70% performance zone. The unique high-side outlier is for the 2009-10-10 - Andiamo 2009 where among the baker's dozen finishers I arrived in 6th place, at a pace 87% that of the winner. The other two 70%+ data points are the 2010-10-09 - Andiamo 2010 and the 2013-03-16 - B and A Marathon, where I managed to qualify to enter the Boston Marathon ("BQ") by 31 seconds. (Since Boston was over-subscribed in 2014 I didn't actually get in, as it happens.) All three high results are on relatively flat, fast courses, paved pathways, not real "trail" runs.

On the downside, the ~45% bottom result is the Tussey Mountainback 2004, my first-ever 50 miler, in which I set a course record for slowness. Otherwise, lots of ups and downs on the chart but no obvious long-term trend to my eye.

^z - 2014-12-02